What then we should look to...............
( this is for all people who r less then 50 ) .........
Well dont u feel asking ur DAD some day that what the hell were u doing in the 1990s why dont u have even a few shares of ABB , Infosys , Wipros , CIplas n Ranbaxys REliance etc.........
Well do invest for long term .........DOnt u guys have a LIC policy ...ya u do isnt it to save tax ..................Well pay tax and buy stocks like Moser baers , Aptech, NIIT ROlta Reliance comm,Idea, Praj , walchand , Aban , etc etc (just an example though some of them i do love .............. ) keep this in small qty as ur premium every mth as u forget the premium of ur insurance policy and forget it as a piece of paper as u do with ur policy ...........
In the tenure of 5 -15 yrs u will see it to be more then a policy for ur dear ones.........
Well dont let ur kids ask u the same question ...DUDE u were in the markets for 10 yrs doing shit business isnt it :)
These are all my personal views on the path ahead...
Regards,
Nooresh
Saturday, June 30, 2007
Sunday Thoughts ....The next wave
The next wave.....................
The next big thing to happen would be the same repeat of statistics as it was in the last 10 yrs in A grp ... but this would now be in the mid n small cap sized stocks and mind u it will take a few years .......already the first round of FIIs is done they have loads to do before the wave starts.........
Well why do u think SEBI is coming out with Futures and Options in the other stocks.................... Well FIIs who are accumulating soon need to hedge their stuff and this is the second round ......................Wasnt it weird Praj and ABAN the best of the bluechips of coming years started their run after FNO opening :)) ....They are just starting of but there are such rockets built in other areas...
We are still not liquid in the mid n small sized regions but the biggest performers in INDIA inc are the mid cap stories.........
For the P/e guys who will soon start talking about it once our markets start running up n away in next few yrs .... The p/e guys will start talking india at 26 balls that too expensive ........Till then the TISCOs would be done with Corus and other takeovers and the next thing would be buybacks..............
What does a buyback do it increases the eps and thus reduces the P/e multiple........
I had come out with a call on DOW jones at 12530 levels talking about a new high on the blog ................Dow Jones went of to 13500 + ....The same thing is going out there for last 1-2 yrs US economy on a decline and would crack soon but markets never did coz the same funda happened there P/e s reduced drastically due to buybacks.........So of the next wave .......
Technically Indian markets are in a huge bull cycle for next 8-13 yrs starting in
June 2005... This is my personal view and have my basis for it.........
One of the elliot wave softwares i have shows 1.5lacs on sensex in the super cycle........Isnt that weird or hypothetical... well its an automated analysis so it doesnot see it as an index ....
The next big thing to happen would be the same repeat of statistics as it was in the last 10 yrs in A grp ... but this would now be in the mid n small cap sized stocks and mind u it will take a few years .......already the first round of FIIs is done they have loads to do before the wave starts.........
Well why do u think SEBI is coming out with Futures and Options in the other stocks.................... Well FIIs who are accumulating soon need to hedge their stuff and this is the second round ......................Wasnt it weird Praj and ABAN the best of the bluechips of coming years started their run after FNO opening :)) ....They are just starting of but there are such rockets built in other areas...
We are still not liquid in the mid n small sized regions but the biggest performers in INDIA inc are the mid cap stories.........
For the P/e guys who will soon start talking about it once our markets start running up n away in next few yrs .... The p/e guys will start talking india at 26 balls that too expensive ........Till then the TISCOs would be done with Corus and other takeovers and the next thing would be buybacks..............
What does a buyback do it increases the eps and thus reduces the P/e multiple........
I had come out with a call on DOW jones at 12530 levels talking about a new high on the blog ................Dow Jones went of to 13500 + ....The same thing is going out there for last 1-2 yrs US economy on a decline and would crack soon but markets never did coz the same funda happened there P/e s reduced drastically due to buybacks.........So of the next wave .......
Technically Indian markets are in a huge bull cycle for next 8-13 yrs starting in
June 2005... This is my personal view and have my basis for it.........
One of the elliot wave softwares i have shows 1.5lacs on sensex in the super cycle........Isnt that weird or hypothetical... well its an automated analysis so it doesnot see it as an index ....
Sunday Thoughts ....Markets are supreme..U find the way
Market is supreme ........ u find the way
FIIs or no FIIs and who is the small investor .........what does the word investor mean ........ Well majority of the losers who have lost out as per my experience are people who are trading a lot and not investing.............U become a long term investor only when a good stock comes 10% down frm ur price.. ........
SEBI is doing their job pity well .........we stil have circuits and i believe not many markets in the world have such limits imposed ....
FIIs hold 15% or say 40% of the stock why shouldnot they //// Manipulation is rampant but a highly traded good A grp stock is not that easy to manipulate dear.... Go sit with one of the operators of dabba stocks u will know how bloody difficult the job is to stay away from SEBI or rather work with SEBI in tandem ...
Also the example that if a FIIs sells his 15% stake in a stock what a crack could it be ..................Well think a lil beyond simplicity .......... Demand n supply .... who the hell is gonna absord 15% the so called small investors.....
If put statistically the FIIs are in a bigger soup coz they dont have the EXIT option at all ............If they want to at one instance then they will go bankrupt that moment ........
Do u guys know that for a FII to generally come out from a stock he has to generally find another FII to take it ...There are some dealers sitting only to catch such deals in btwn .........FOr them its not the stock price thats important its the stake they are able to get ...
One more research thing for all to study i wont elaborate much though :
GO through the last 10 yrs and see in which years the biggest volumes were picked in Indian Bluechips and how much delivery done etc etc ...........Which were those years .........the statistics what the FIIs are doing now is just mainly sitting on what they took years back and adding them ..............So do u think if u have gold laying hen u gonna kill then hen ...........all u will do is feed it or if u r the laziest rich man u will just keep them ..............
FIIs or no FIIs and who is the small investor .........what does the word investor mean ........ Well majority of the losers who have lost out as per my experience are people who are trading a lot and not investing.............U become a long term investor only when a good stock comes 10% down frm ur price.. ........
SEBI is doing their job pity well .........we stil have circuits and i believe not many markets in the world have such limits imposed ....
FIIs hold 15% or say 40% of the stock why shouldnot they //// Manipulation is rampant but a highly traded good A grp stock is not that easy to manipulate dear.... Go sit with one of the operators of dabba stocks u will know how bloody difficult the job is to stay away from SEBI or rather work with SEBI in tandem ...
Also the example that if a FIIs sells his 15% stake in a stock what a crack could it be ..................Well think a lil beyond simplicity .......... Demand n supply .... who the hell is gonna absord 15% the so called small investors.....
If put statistically the FIIs are in a bigger soup coz they dont have the EXIT option at all ............If they want to at one instance then they will go bankrupt that moment ........
Do u guys know that for a FII to generally come out from a stock he has to generally find another FII to take it ...There are some dealers sitting only to catch such deals in btwn .........FOr them its not the stock price thats important its the stake they are able to get ...
One more research thing for all to study i wont elaborate much though :
GO through the last 10 yrs and see in which years the biggest volumes were picked in Indian Bluechips and how much delivery done etc etc ...........Which were those years .........the statistics what the FIIs are doing now is just mainly sitting on what they took years back and adding them ..............So do u think if u have gold laying hen u gonna kill then hen ...........all u will do is feed it or if u r the laziest rich man u will just keep them ..............
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