GOOD MORNING.
DEAR FRIENDS,
OPPORTUNITY
SMALL CORRECTIONS DOES NOT MEAN ENTRY INTO BEAR PHASE, BUT, CAN BE AN OPPORTUNITY TO BUY INTO STOCKS AT ATTRACTIVE LEVELS.
TODAY, SENSEX WILL FIND RESISTANCE AT 15590 & 15655 IN EXTREME SHORT TERM. DOWNSIDE SUPPORTS ARE PLACED AT 15495 & 15435.
TRADING SUPPORT IS PLACED AT 15450 & SHORT TERM INVESTMENT SUPPORT IS PLACED AT 15285. WE STRONGLY RECOMMEND BUYING AT GIVEN SUPPORT LEVELS.
CORRECTION OF CONCERN WILL BE BELOW THE BAND OF 15000 & 14800.
BONGAINGAON REF IS ON THE VERGE OF STRONG BULLISH BREAKOUT IF MOVES ABOVE 57. WE RECOMMEND BUYING AT CURRENT LEVELS & AT DECLINES UPTO 50 WITH STOPLOSS PLACED AT 49 FOR TARGETS OF 63, 79 & 95 IN EXTREME SHORT TERM TO MEDIUM TERM.
M & M IS PREPARING FOR AN UPMOVE. BUT WAIT FOR IT TO START TRADING ABOVE 850 FOR A QUICK TARGET OF 875. BUY ON DECLINES UPTO 820 WITH STOPLOSS AT 816.
MARUTI UDYOG IS ALSO SHOWING BULLISH TENDENCIES ON THE CHART ABOVE 850 FOR TARGET OF 880. ACCUMULATION ON DECLINES UPTO 790 WITH STOPLOSS PLACED AT 782 IS ALSO RECOMMENDED.
TAKE CARE!!
BEST REGARDS,
NS FIDAI
DISCLAIMER:
[The above recommendations are based on the theory of Technical Analysis and do not reflect the fundamental validity of the Scrip. Author will not be held responsible for any losses, financial or otherwise, incurred.]
NOTE:
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Monday, July 23, 2007
Sunday, July 22, 2007
Sunday Thoughts....RISK , STOPLOSS n DISCIPLINE>>.
Some things which people never think.........
A stock is expensive if its worth 2000 rs..............Isnt it .....But if it has the potential to run 2000 to 4000 it is equivalent to 20 ka 40 isnt it ...........1 lac rs is same if in a 20 re stock or in a 20000 re stock...
Some day traders and short term traders buy a stock at 300 tgt 306 end up holding it even if it goes to 280 ... Hoping for 300 isnt it weird..... ... At the same time same guys who may be gr8 businessmen do sell of their goods say garments in end of season sale or stock out to start afresh and new next season isnt it :) Out here in stocks people end up saying i bought that for long term only only when the stock falls 10-15% and ask how much time should it take to come back to those levels isnt it GR8 BUSIness...
How people get into a fight with a wrong trade and try to make it a profitable trade isnt it ??? ,,,,,How many people end up averaging frm 100 to 60 levels in hope to get an average price to be able to remove it at a price ....................So many keep shorting on rise on expectation of a correction in a flyer .............Grudges dont win money only satisfy the loser in u ....
the simplest thing a business men or a mgmt trainee does is comes out with a feasibility report or risk assesment isnt it ????
I would say STOPLOSS is the risk assesment so if u know that u know if u bought 1000 shares of a Re 100 stock ............If the stoploss is 95 the only money u can lose is 5k .........So if u follow this u would need to get wrong 5 times to loose 30% ...........Well if u read a little or analyze may not go wrong that many times but yes one wrong stock can kill the portfolio ...
The best trader known to the world ........W D gann who was recorded by New York times for 500-900 % returns annually in trading ./.....What does he write the first line in his book .....TRADE WITH STOPLOSSES ....isnt it clear ...
Discipline :
Well every business needs discipline and straight thinking and never get attached to stocks or try fighting them or get on to a grudge ............Discipline is to have a plan........Isnt it people end up selling reliance and other stocks to pay margins in FNO ........Or to buy more of junk stocks in hope of quick money ..........end result nor the reliance is left nor da money ....
Differentiate between in your long term portfolio and trading ........Do u sell of your old business which u have been doing for a fresh thing isnt it ........
Risk , Stoploss , Discipline and patience are simple words with gr8 meanings in the markets................
Regards,
Nooresh
09819225396
A stock is expensive if its worth 2000 rs..............Isnt it .....But if it has the potential to run 2000 to 4000 it is equivalent to 20 ka 40 isnt it ...........1 lac rs is same if in a 20 re stock or in a 20000 re stock...
Some day traders and short term traders buy a stock at 300 tgt 306 end up holding it even if it goes to 280 ... Hoping for 300 isnt it weird..... ... At the same time same guys who may be gr8 businessmen do sell of their goods say garments in end of season sale or stock out to start afresh and new next season isnt it :) Out here in stocks people end up saying i bought that for long term only only when the stock falls 10-15% and ask how much time should it take to come back to those levels isnt it GR8 BUSIness...
How people get into a fight with a wrong trade and try to make it a profitable trade isnt it ??? ,,,,,How many people end up averaging frm 100 to 60 levels in hope to get an average price to be able to remove it at a price ....................So many keep shorting on rise on expectation of a correction in a flyer .............Grudges dont win money only satisfy the loser in u ....
the simplest thing a business men or a mgmt trainee does is comes out with a feasibility report or risk assesment isnt it ????
I would say STOPLOSS is the risk assesment so if u know that u know if u bought 1000 shares of a Re 100 stock ............If the stoploss is 95 the only money u can lose is 5k .........So if u follow this u would need to get wrong 5 times to loose 30% ...........Well if u read a little or analyze may not go wrong that many times but yes one wrong stock can kill the portfolio ...
The best trader known to the world ........W D gann who was recorded by New York times for 500-900 % returns annually in trading ./.....What does he write the first line in his book .....TRADE WITH STOPLOSSES ....isnt it clear ...
Discipline :
Well every business needs discipline and straight thinking and never get attached to stocks or try fighting them or get on to a grudge ............Discipline is to have a plan........Isnt it people end up selling reliance and other stocks to pay margins in FNO ........Or to buy more of junk stocks in hope of quick money ..........end result nor the reliance is left nor da money ....
Differentiate between in your long term portfolio and trading ........Do u sell of your old business which u have been doing for a fresh thing isnt it ........
Risk , Stoploss , Discipline and patience are simple words with gr8 meanings in the markets................
Regards,
Nooresh
09819225396
Saturday, June 30, 2007
The Path Ahead...........
What then we should look to...............
( this is for all people who r less then 50 ) .........
Well dont u feel asking ur DAD some day that what the hell were u doing in the 1990s why dont u have even a few shares of ABB , Infosys , Wipros , CIplas n Ranbaxys REliance etc.........
Well do invest for long term .........DOnt u guys have a LIC policy ...ya u do isnt it to save tax ..................Well pay tax and buy stocks like Moser baers , Aptech, NIIT ROlta Reliance comm,Idea, Praj , walchand , Aban , etc etc (just an example though some of them i do love .............. ) keep this in small qty as ur premium every mth as u forget the premium of ur insurance policy and forget it as a piece of paper as u do with ur policy ...........
In the tenure of 5 -15 yrs u will see it to be more then a policy for ur dear ones.........
Well dont let ur kids ask u the same question ...DUDE u were in the markets for 10 yrs doing shit business isnt it :)
These are all my personal views on the path ahead...
Regards,
Nooresh
( this is for all people who r less then 50 ) .........
Well dont u feel asking ur DAD some day that what the hell were u doing in the 1990s why dont u have even a few shares of ABB , Infosys , Wipros , CIplas n Ranbaxys REliance etc.........
Well do invest for long term .........DOnt u guys have a LIC policy ...ya u do isnt it to save tax ..................Well pay tax and buy stocks like Moser baers , Aptech, NIIT ROlta Reliance comm,Idea, Praj , walchand , Aban , etc etc (just an example though some of them i do love .............. ) keep this in small qty as ur premium every mth as u forget the premium of ur insurance policy and forget it as a piece of paper as u do with ur policy ...........
In the tenure of 5 -15 yrs u will see it to be more then a policy for ur dear ones.........
Well dont let ur kids ask u the same question ...DUDE u were in the markets for 10 yrs doing shit business isnt it :)
These are all my personal views on the path ahead...
Regards,
Nooresh
Sunday Thoughts ....The next wave
The next wave.....................
The next big thing to happen would be the same repeat of statistics as it was in the last 10 yrs in A grp ... but this would now be in the mid n small cap sized stocks and mind u it will take a few years .......already the first round of FIIs is done they have loads to do before the wave starts.........
Well why do u think SEBI is coming out with Futures and Options in the other stocks.................... Well FIIs who are accumulating soon need to hedge their stuff and this is the second round ......................Wasnt it weird Praj and ABAN the best of the bluechips of coming years started their run after FNO opening :)) ....They are just starting of but there are such rockets built in other areas...
We are still not liquid in the mid n small sized regions but the biggest performers in INDIA inc are the mid cap stories.........
For the P/e guys who will soon start talking about it once our markets start running up n away in next few yrs .... The p/e guys will start talking india at 26 balls that too expensive ........Till then the TISCOs would be done with Corus and other takeovers and the next thing would be buybacks..............
What does a buyback do it increases the eps and thus reduces the P/e multiple........
I had come out with a call on DOW jones at 12530 levels talking about a new high on the blog ................Dow Jones went of to 13500 + ....The same thing is going out there for last 1-2 yrs US economy on a decline and would crack soon but markets never did coz the same funda happened there P/e s reduced drastically due to buybacks.........So of the next wave .......
Technically Indian markets are in a huge bull cycle for next 8-13 yrs starting in
June 2005... This is my personal view and have my basis for it.........
One of the elliot wave softwares i have shows 1.5lacs on sensex in the super cycle........Isnt that weird or hypothetical... well its an automated analysis so it doesnot see it as an index ....
The next big thing to happen would be the same repeat of statistics as it was in the last 10 yrs in A grp ... but this would now be in the mid n small cap sized stocks and mind u it will take a few years .......already the first round of FIIs is done they have loads to do before the wave starts.........
Well why do u think SEBI is coming out with Futures and Options in the other stocks.................... Well FIIs who are accumulating soon need to hedge their stuff and this is the second round ......................Wasnt it weird Praj and ABAN the best of the bluechips of coming years started their run after FNO opening :)) ....They are just starting of but there are such rockets built in other areas...
We are still not liquid in the mid n small sized regions but the biggest performers in INDIA inc are the mid cap stories.........
For the P/e guys who will soon start talking about it once our markets start running up n away in next few yrs .... The p/e guys will start talking india at 26 balls that too expensive ........Till then the TISCOs would be done with Corus and other takeovers and the next thing would be buybacks..............
What does a buyback do it increases the eps and thus reduces the P/e multiple........
I had come out with a call on DOW jones at 12530 levels talking about a new high on the blog ................Dow Jones went of to 13500 + ....The same thing is going out there for last 1-2 yrs US economy on a decline and would crack soon but markets never did coz the same funda happened there P/e s reduced drastically due to buybacks.........So of the next wave .......
Technically Indian markets are in a huge bull cycle for next 8-13 yrs starting in
June 2005... This is my personal view and have my basis for it.........
One of the elliot wave softwares i have shows 1.5lacs on sensex in the super cycle........Isnt that weird or hypothetical... well its an automated analysis so it doesnot see it as an index ....
Sunday Thoughts ....Markets are supreme..U find the way
Market is supreme ........ u find the way
FIIs or no FIIs and who is the small investor .........what does the word investor mean ........ Well majority of the losers who have lost out as per my experience are people who are trading a lot and not investing.............U become a long term investor only when a good stock comes 10% down frm ur price.. ........
SEBI is doing their job pity well .........we stil have circuits and i believe not many markets in the world have such limits imposed ....
FIIs hold 15% or say 40% of the stock why shouldnot they //// Manipulation is rampant but a highly traded good A grp stock is not that easy to manipulate dear.... Go sit with one of the operators of dabba stocks u will know how bloody difficult the job is to stay away from SEBI or rather work with SEBI in tandem ...
Also the example that if a FIIs sells his 15% stake in a stock what a crack could it be ..................Well think a lil beyond simplicity .......... Demand n supply .... who the hell is gonna absord 15% the so called small investors.....
If put statistically the FIIs are in a bigger soup coz they dont have the EXIT option at all ............If they want to at one instance then they will go bankrupt that moment ........
Do u guys know that for a FII to generally come out from a stock he has to generally find another FII to take it ...There are some dealers sitting only to catch such deals in btwn .........FOr them its not the stock price thats important its the stake they are able to get ...
One more research thing for all to study i wont elaborate much though :
GO through the last 10 yrs and see in which years the biggest volumes were picked in Indian Bluechips and how much delivery done etc etc ...........Which were those years .........the statistics what the FIIs are doing now is just mainly sitting on what they took years back and adding them ..............So do u think if u have gold laying hen u gonna kill then hen ...........all u will do is feed it or if u r the laziest rich man u will just keep them ..............
FIIs or no FIIs and who is the small investor .........what does the word investor mean ........ Well majority of the losers who have lost out as per my experience are people who are trading a lot and not investing.............U become a long term investor only when a good stock comes 10% down frm ur price.. ........
SEBI is doing their job pity well .........we stil have circuits and i believe not many markets in the world have such limits imposed ....
FIIs hold 15% or say 40% of the stock why shouldnot they //// Manipulation is rampant but a highly traded good A grp stock is not that easy to manipulate dear.... Go sit with one of the operators of dabba stocks u will know how bloody difficult the job is to stay away from SEBI or rather work with SEBI in tandem ...
Also the example that if a FIIs sells his 15% stake in a stock what a crack could it be ..................Well think a lil beyond simplicity .......... Demand n supply .... who the hell is gonna absord 15% the so called small investors.....
If put statistically the FIIs are in a bigger soup coz they dont have the EXIT option at all ............If they want to at one instance then they will go bankrupt that moment ........
Do u guys know that for a FII to generally come out from a stock he has to generally find another FII to take it ...There are some dealers sitting only to catch such deals in btwn .........FOr them its not the stock price thats important its the stake they are able to get ...
One more research thing for all to study i wont elaborate much though :
GO through the last 10 yrs and see in which years the biggest volumes were picked in Indian Bluechips and how much delivery done etc etc ...........Which were those years .........the statistics what the FIIs are doing now is just mainly sitting on what they took years back and adding them ..............So do u think if u have gold laying hen u gonna kill then hen ...........all u will do is feed it or if u r the laziest rich man u will just keep them ..............
Sunday, November 19, 2006
Jesse Livermore ....
The first obvious thing about this blog would be for uall that the post would be on some great ways to make money using technical analysis isnt it??
But sorry to say this is not the way u learn technical analysis ..
Coz if u go to any one and tell him to teach you technical analysis .. he will start of blabbering about relative strength index , MACD , EMA , SMA , trendlines ,head n shoulders and what not..
Well and thats it the person hits the bullseye u start feeling he is one knowledgeable dude. and then he will go off saying this is what i recommended and .. u could make this much .. and what not..
But nobody explains u how to learn even i would say i cant ... Depends if u r ready to leanr and put in time..
Neways before i start something on technical analysis on this page ..
Lets all of us start learning and understanding the way the markets run or i would say the unreal way how the operators play ..
And the first Assumption of technical analysis is " History repats itself "
Well so here i start of with an engrossing novel or i would say i guide written by one of the most know punters .. Jesse Livermore.. and mind u this is years back but history repeats itself markets work the same way .. demand n supply watever jargon u use is crap...
Well he was one of the biggest plungers and operators who played it great and started of as a dealer and much more to it .. got broke many a time in his life for his lavish life n also trading..
I would not elaborate more on him coz if somebody is ready to learn would directly hit the link and download...
http://www.savefile.com/files/272131
Read this book an easiest book to start of on... no jargon pure simple story of markets and operators..
To end of this is something called efficient market theory ... explains why technical analysis
Efficient Market theory
The Efficient Market Theory says that security prices correctly and almost immediately reflect all information and expectations. It says that you cannot consistently outperform the stock market due to the random nature in which information arrives and the fact that prices react and adjust almost immediately to reflect the latest information. Therefore, it assumes that at any given time, the market correctly prices all securities. The result, or so the Theory advocates, is that securities cannot be overpriced or underpriced for a long enough period of time to profit therefrom.
The Theory holds that since prices reflect all available information, and since information arrives in a random fashion, there is little to be gained by any type of analysis, whether fundamental or technical. It assumes that every piece of information has been collected and processed by thousands of investors and this information (both old and new) is correctly reflected in the price. Returns cannot be increased by studying historical data, either fundamental or technical, since past data will have no effect on future prices.
The problem with both of these theories is that many investors base their expectations on past prices (whether using technical indicators, a strong track record, an oversold condition, industry trends, etc). And since investors expectations control prices, it seems obvious that past prices do have a significant influence on future prices.
But sorry to say this is not the way u learn technical analysis ..
Coz if u go to any one and tell him to teach you technical analysis .. he will start of blabbering about relative strength index , MACD , EMA , SMA , trendlines ,head n shoulders and what not..
Well and thats it the person hits the bullseye u start feeling he is one knowledgeable dude. and then he will go off saying this is what i recommended and .. u could make this much .. and what not..
But nobody explains u how to learn even i would say i cant ... Depends if u r ready to leanr and put in time..
Neways before i start something on technical analysis on this page ..
Lets all of us start learning and understanding the way the markets run or i would say the unreal way how the operators play ..
And the first Assumption of technical analysis is " History repats itself "
Well so here i start of with an engrossing novel or i would say i guide written by one of the most know punters .. Jesse Livermore.. and mind u this is years back but history repeats itself markets work the same way .. demand n supply watever jargon u use is crap...
Well he was one of the biggest plungers and operators who played it great and started of as a dealer and much more to it .. got broke many a time in his life for his lavish life n also trading..
I would not elaborate more on him coz if somebody is ready to learn would directly hit the link and download...
http://www.savefile.com/files/272131
Read this book an easiest book to start of on... no jargon pure simple story of markets and operators..
To end of this is something called efficient market theory ... explains why technical analysis
Efficient Market theory
The Efficient Market Theory says that security prices correctly and almost immediately reflect all information and expectations. It says that you cannot consistently outperform the stock market due to the random nature in which information arrives and the fact that prices react and adjust almost immediately to reflect the latest information. Therefore, it assumes that at any given time, the market correctly prices all securities. The result, or so the Theory advocates, is that securities cannot be overpriced or underpriced for a long enough period of time to profit therefrom.
The Theory holds that since prices reflect all available information, and since information arrives in a random fashion, there is little to be gained by any type of analysis, whether fundamental or technical. It assumes that every piece of information has been collected and processed by thousands of investors and this information (both old and new) is correctly reflected in the price. Returns cannot be increased by studying historical data, either fundamental or technical, since past data will have no effect on future prices.
The problem with both of these theories is that many investors base their expectations on past prices (whether using technical indicators, a strong track record, an oversold condition, industry trends, etc). And since investors expectations control prices, it seems obvious that past prices do have a significant influence on future prices.
Wednesday, November 15, 2006
Learn Technical Analysis ...
Wait for a few days ..
till then look out for something to learn in the ads..
www.icharts.in
good for intra charts
www.chartpatterns.com
for basics..
lot to come...
till then look out for something to learn in the ads..
www.icharts.in
good for intra charts
www.chartpatterns.com
for basics..
lot to come...
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